A 42 per cent profit. That’s what you’d have made on Greatland Gold shares if you’d bought at the start of 2025.
The catalyst? A growing realisation that the group is on the cusp of something big.
But as we’ll see, the recent flourish may be just the beginning, with key value inflexion points still to come.
Western Australia-focused Greatland’s success hasn’t been overnight, nor has the journey been linear.
There was a flirtation with precious metals giant Newmont which, while not progressing as expected, has worked out perfectly for Greatland and its backers.
December 4 last year marked a major milestone as the company secured full control of Havieron, a world-class gold and copper prospect.
Soaring: Greatland Gold shares have made a 42 per cent profit since the start of 2025
It acquired the 70 per cent stake it didn’t already own from Newmont and, as part of the deal, also bought the Telfer mine, some 45km from Havieron.
With a headline value of $475million, the acquisition reunited Greatland with the asset it discovered in 2018 – plus the added kicker of significant gold and copper output.
Progress since the deal closed was outlined in last week’s interim results. While it’s early days, the team led by managing director Shaun Day has hit the ground running.
Production from Telfer exceeded forecasts, delivering 29,864 ounces of gold and 1,189 tonnes of copper in the first 27 days under new ownership.
Over the next 15 months, Telfer – home to one of Australia’s largest gold and copper processing facilities -is expected to yield 426,000 ounces of gold equivalent from stockpiles and open-pit mining.
There is also scope to expand and extend the mine’s life, with several open-pit and underground brownfield opportunities identified.
The jewel in the crown, however, is Havieron. Described by the company as a world-class asset, it boasts a resource of 8.4million gold-equivalent ounces.
Even working to a conservative base case, Greatland plans to unearth 4.5million ounces over 20 years.
The economics are compelling, with an all-in sustaining cost of just $818 an ounce—among the lowest-cost gold and copper production globally.
For the first 15 years, output is expected to average 258,000 gold-equivalent ounces per year.
The feasibility study for Havieron is due in the second half of 2025, with first gold production targeted for the second half of 2027.
To support development, Greatland has received a non-binding letter of support for A$775million in debt facilities.
In the near-term, an updated resource estimate is expected by the end of this month, with a new mineral reserve estimate scheduled for the end of the June quarter.
A June ASX listing is also in the works, which Greatland expects will enhance its capital markets profile and attract greater institutional investment.
Canaccord sees a valuation anomaly – even after the stock’s recent rally. Greatland trades at about half its net asset value, whereas peers are closer to one times NAV.
By that measure, the shares should be worth 19p, the Canadian investment bank suggests – before factoring in a longer mine life at Telfer or exploration upside.
Of course, this isn’t a risk-free bet. Success will hinge on how well MD Day and his team execute their well-defined plan and secure funding.
So far, they’ve barely put a foot wrong – which is highly encouraging.
